November 9, 2013

Politics is a game of narrative. Whoever controls the narrative wins.

Sure, the truth is interesting. But truth doesn’t sell. It takes time to uncover, assuming people care enough to go digging for it.

Narratives are easier. They’re simple, comforting and come pre-approved by the crowd.

Groupthink isn’t just easy. It’s safe. The truth, on the other hand, requires work and enough bravery to risk being out of step with people who judge you.

And we’re busy. So, we outsource our thinking to the media, entertainment and schools, and go with whatever story they hand us.

When the narrative frays

Take this one: “Teachers are underpaid.”

It’s airtight. Say it at a cocktail party and everyone nods like they’ve just solved poverty.

But start factoring in full compensation packages, insurance, pensions with guaranteed lifetime payouts, a work calendar with summers off, fall and spring breaks, and two weeks for whatever they call Christmas these days, and suddenly the narrative gets…well, frayed.

Sidenote — studies confirm for an employee to afford a pre-paid retirement plan with the same guaranteed payout of a teacher’s pension, one’s salary would have to be increased about 27%.

Here’s another: “Fossil fuels are destroying the planet.”

That one has moved beyond narrative into religion. Question it and you’re not debating policy, you’re committing heresy. You will be canceled.

But here’s the part that never makes the sermon.

Roughly 2.3 billion people still cook over wood or dung. If we move them to portable propane stoves it would remove as much greenhouse gas as if we ended all air, rail and boat traffic combined.

Oh, not that it matters, but it would save women in impoverished nations about four hours a day toiling to collect fuel for the fire.

So, fossil fuels could save our climate. But the power of narrative will keep it “in the ground” choking our economy, potentially keeping the globe warming. But at least third-world chicks will never advance. So, we got that.

Political lying season

Narratives aren’t designed to inform you. They’re designed to manipulate you.

Which brings us to political lying season. Again.

The stories being planted right now as the legislature argues “budget cuts” will be set to bloom just in time for the fall election. And the anti-taxpayer choir is already warming up for its heart-rendering performance of “The State Needs More of Your Money.”

The script never changes.

There’s a crisis. It’s urgent. It’s not their fault. And fixing it requires reaching deeper into your pocket.

A couple years ago, Kyle Clark from 9News was one of the first to poke a hole in that script during the Proposition HH debate.

“Governor,” he said, “We know you’re smart. I hope you don’t think we’re stupid.”

That moment mattered. It cracked the narrative just enough for others to question it. HH went down by 20 points.

Turns out, when the story collapses, so does the manipulation.

Which is why this year’s push will be all about getting the story right.

Ending TABOR refunds won’t be sold as a tax hike. It’ll be “for the kids,” even though school enrollment is dropping fast.

A graduated income tax won’t be about chasing Colorado’s most innovative to a low- or no-income tax state. It’ll be about “fairness.”

And don’t forget the transit undead. We need a round of statewide trolley taxes to get us a train named after a drag queen. “And on stage 3, give it up for CoCo!” Forget about two decades of neglecting our roadways. It’ll be about “the future of transportation,” somehow with technology from the 1800s.

Seeing through the spin

The details don’t matter nearly as much as the storyline.

Their schemes stand no chance unless they can develop an unchallenged storyline: The budget cuts will hurt the most fragile, and the budget crisis wasn’t their fault.

They will make sure the budget cuts really do hurt the most fragile. And they’ll never take responsibility for bloating the Medicaid roles 200% with people who are not disabled.

Your mission, if you choose to accept it, is a spot when and how they and their allies develop and test their narratives over the truth.

Watch which programs get highlighted. Watch which words get repeated. Watch how quickly blame is redirected.

Because if the narrative holds, the tax increases follow.

But if it cracks, even a room full of politicians can suddenly discover fiscal restraint.

Jon Caldara is president of Independence Institute, a free market think tank in Denver.