Colorado public schools are projected to lose roughly 16,000 students heading into the 2026-27 school year, part of a continuing enrollment decline that has significant implications for how state education dollars are distributed.
In a recent episode of Independence Institute’s* Learning Curve podast, hosts Erin Brantley and Ross Izard lay out the enrollment decline in the context of Colorado’s school finance system.
Because state funding is closely tied to the number of students attending schools, declining enrollment ultimately means fewer dollars for affected districts.
The decline comes as Colorado is working through major changes to school funding. Lawmakers rewrote a decades-old funding formula in 2024, and made additional adjustments through the 2026 School Finance Act. The new system remains a work in progress, further complicating funding calculations.
Districts should have preliminary estimates of their state funding by the beginning of the school year, but the critical number comes with Colorado’s October student count, which plays a major role in determining district funding.
Brantley and Izard conclude that declining enrollment, an evolving finance formula and competing demands on the state budget will keep school funding a major issue heading into the 2027 legislative session.
You can see the entire episode on You Tube here, or watch it below.

