There’s a good chance you will never receive another TABOR tax refund for as long as you live.
If Proposition NN wins, whom should we blame? Three suspects: the car-wash pricing strategy, Victor Marx and Kyle Clark.
In any normal election, NN would lose easily. Whenever Colorado voters have been asked to surrender their tax refunds, they vote with their middle finger.
People enjoy keeping their own money. Go figure.
Tax-refund-grabbing Proposition CC failed in 2019 by nearly seven points. Its successor, Proposition HH, lost in 2023 by Yankees-versus-Rockies numbers: almost 19 points.
If politics had any consistency, NN would lose by even more. It is far more destructive than either CC or HH.
CC and HH would have “de-TABORed” Colorado, allowing the legislature to keep your tax refunds. But neither changed TABOR’s spending formula of population growth and inflation.
NN lets the legislature rewrite that formula whenever it wants.
Translation: If Colorado ever appears likely to collect excess revenue again, lawmakers can simply move the goalposts until the excess disappears. They keep the surplus. You don’t get a refund. No voters required.
This is a very big deal. Why is no one talking about it?
The car-wash pricing strategy
You pull into a car wash and see four options. There’s the basic wash, two increasingly expensive washes and the Ultra-Deluxe-Supreme package, which includes undercoating, a fender massage and new-car smell — which I use as cologne.
Almost nobody buys the Ultra-Deluxe-Supreme. They’re not supposed to.
Its purpose is to make the merely overpriced options look reasonable. Suddenly, you’re congratulating yourself for buying the $27 wash because at least you didn’t spend $42 to have your wheel wells exfoliated.
It’s an upselling gimmick. It works. And it’s happening on this year’s ballot.
The Ultra-Deluxe-Supreme economy-killing proposal is Amendment 87, the graduated income tax. Voters instinctively understand Colorado cannot afford it.
Sure, 87 offers most of us a tiny tax cut paid for by rich people, whom we are all contractually obligated to hate.
But voters also understand that wealthy people and their companies will leave. They understand that the new tax brackets aren’t indexed for inflation, so eventually inflation will tax everyone at the “rich” rate.
Next to Amendment 87, Proposition NN looks like the sensible middle option — the car wash without the complimentary transmission wax.
The strategy affects donors too. This year’s anti-tax money is being spent fighting Amendment 87. Without 87 on the ballot, much of that money would presumably be aimed directly at NN.
The Marx distraction
That brings us to our second suspect: Victor Marx, the biggest nonstory to hit Colorado politics in decades.
Marx is guaranteed to lose. Another segment, column or solemn panel discussion about him will change exactly nothing.
At this point media coverage of him is just kicking a puppy for fun and ratings. Victor Marx is Kyle Clark’s Bobo punching doll, ready to fill another six-minute segment.
Meanwhile, Proposition NN waits quietly in the corner, preparing to take your tax refunds forever.
In years past, CC and HH received a proper amount of scrutiny and analysis. This year’s crowded ballot has left little oxygen for explaining NN, leaving supporters unchallenged to repeat lies such as “it doesn’t raise taxes” and “it’s for the kids.”
The media hasn’t adequately informed voters that NN contains no guarantee the money goes to children. Even if it does, that commitment lasts only 10 years.
The legislature keeps your refunds forever. I’m not great at math, but I think forever is longer than 10 years.
Where’s Kyle?
Which brings us to our third suspect: Kyle Clark.
In 2023, Clark killed Proposition HH when he said, “Governor, we know you’re smart. I hope you don’t think we’re stupid.”
That was the starter pistol. It signaled to the rest of Colorado’s mostly lemming media that skepticism was permitted. Reporters began telling voters what HH actually did, and it went down by 19 points.
If Clark and the rest of Colorado’s media gave NN a fraction of the airtime and vitriol they’ve lavished on Victor Marx, voters would understand that NN is far worse than HH.
But Victor Marx is entertaining. Spending formulas aren’t.
Amendment 87 gets the money. Marx gets the coverage. NN gets ignored.
And the legislature gets your TABOR refunds for the rest of your life.
Jon Caldara is president of Independence Institute, a free market think tank in Denver.
