Colorado population growth

Stalled population growth a sign of Colorado in decline

Jon Caldara January 28, 2026

When the cost of living rises faster than wages, the view of the Rockies starts to look less romantic.

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In Colorado, TDS doesn’t stand for “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” It stands for “TABOR Derangement Syndrome.”

You can spot its sufferers easily. They break into hives at the mere mention of the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights. In fact, they can’t even utter its full name, Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, only “TABOR,” as if it’s a slur.

They blame it for everything from potholes to pimples. And they insist — with religious certainty — TABOR is shrinking government in Colorado, and thus people are suffering.

That’s not just wrong. It is so demonstrably wrong it’s deranged.

TABOR passed in 1992. If it really were the government-killing death ray its critics describe, Colorado should look like a ghost town by now. Abandoned government buildings. Empty parking lots at the Capitol. Bureaucrats reduced to bartering staplers for food.

State government keeps growing

Instead, we have (drumroll…) more government than ever.

According to recent analysis from Independence Institute’s Nash Herman, the state didn’t shrink. It swelled like Oprah in a Krispy Kreme shop.

Let’s start with the budget. Since the early 1990s, the state’s General Fund has grown by 44%. That’s where all our tax money is supposed to go. We elect representatives to approximate our values and debate how to spend it.

And thanks to TABOR they can’t spend more of that fund than what they spent last year plus population growth and inflation.

Except that while the General Fund has grown 44%, the new taxes they don’t call taxes (fees) has grown by 588%. It now makes the General Fund look like a tiny slice of the pie by comparison.

To modify a quote from Ghostbusters’ Dr. Egon Spangler, “Let’s say this Twinkie represents the normal amount of taxation in Colorado. According to this morning’s sample, when you add the taxes we’re not allowed to vote on, it would be a Twinkie 35 feet long weighing approximately 600 pounds.”

That’s a big Twinkie.

Yep, those “Cash Funds” exploded by 588%. And federal funds (still our tax money) spent by our state ballooned by 278%. That’s the cash we temporarily get from the feds our legislators get addicted to spending, so they can scream “budget crisis” when it turns out temporary means temporary.

The real threat to democracy

Those who believe democracy is in danger need to focus on this next part, because they’re right:

Back in 1993, the General Fund made up 56% of the state budget. Today, it’s only 35%.

Do you see the threat to democracy? Might require a second look.

Our democratic republic was based on a battle cry, “no taxation without representation.” When TABOR passed the large majority of our taxation had our direct representation. Today only a third of what is taken from us is controlled by those we elected.

Thanks to the engorged orgy of taxes we can’t call taxes (like “fees”), two-thirds of our government is now operating outside of our democratic control.

Despite what the TABOR-deranged say, state spending has been growing faster than the economy itself. Colorado’s GDP has averaged about 5% growth since the late 1990s. State spending? About 6%.

Well, let’s look at it just a little differently. Since 1993, private employment in Colorado is up 61%. Solid. But state government employment? Up 189%.

Apparently, TABOR is so “crippling” the bureaucracy tripled.

Which explains why lobbyists are doing so well. Since 1995, professional lobbyist incomes have risen 374%. When government grows, so does the industry dedicated to feeding on it.

Then there’s Medicaid. Since 2009, Colorado’s population has grown about 20%. Medicaid enrollment? Up more than 200%.

And if you think taxpayers have been protected, think again. Since 2001, the average effective state tax rate has increased by almost 14%.

So dear TABOR-deranged folks, PLEASE tell me again how TABOR is “starving” government.

Consent of the governed

Those with TDS believe unchecked government spending is moral virtue and the simple consent before increasing their spending and our taxes is cruelty.

You see, TABOR is democracy. The gob-smacking growth of state government could only happen when they work around TABOR.

Which is why their sky-is-falling, democracy-destroying obsession never ends. Every year there’s a new attempt to “fix” TABOR, “modernize” TABOR, “adjust” TABOR, or “temporarily suspend” TABOR.

Funny how all those fixes move in exactly one direction.

TABOR’s real crime is not shrinking government, because it doesn’t. It’s reminding government who it works for.

Jon Caldara is president of Independence Institute, a free market think in Denver.

Colorado suffers under TABOR Derangement Syndrome

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Colorado population growth

Stalled population growth a sign of Colorado in decline

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