There are two dozen school-related tax increases on November ballots across Colorado, while at the same time, many school districts face declining enrollment and school closures.
Will raising taxes improve enrollment trends, or make them worse? Let’s explore the numbers.
Enrollment declining faster than expected
Many Colorado K-12 school district populations are declining, and most districts project the downward trends to accelerate over the next decade. Statewide, public school enrollment dropped by 10,000, or more than 1% in 2025-2026.
Earlier this month Denver Public Schools (DPS) re-revised its 2026-2027 enrollment numbers downward. The district, which lost 1,240 students in the 2025-26 school year, anticipated a decline of up to 1,500 students this year, but the final numbers showed a loss of 1,780, or nearly 19% worse than projected and 43% higher than the previous year. Jefferson County (Jeffco) School District’s population is declining even faster, with kindergarten enrollment dropping almost 13% in the past three years.
Big tax increases on the ballot
Two statewide ballot measures, Prop NN and Amendment 87, promise to increase education funding dramatically, but the total allotment is unclear. Amendment 87 mentions education along with health care and child care as potential recipients for its $2.7 billion annual windfall, but does not specify how much money goes to each sector. Prop NN promises at least a 2% increase in education funding, and as much as a 50% increase over 10 years, but 87 and NN both pledge the funds will only “supplement” budgets, rather than replace lost money (such as lost “per-pupil” funding from declining enrollment).
At the local level, there are 22 proposed education tax increases across the state. DPS is asking for a $44 million property tax increase, citing financial pressures for teacher pay, vocational education, mental health and special education programs. Jeffco put two tax increase measures on the November ballot totaling $133 million annually, which would be more than a 13% increase in its annual budget. Perhaps not coincidentally, Jeffco’s enrollment is down more than 13% since voters passed the last mill levy override in 2018.
(Thank you, Kim Monson, for maintaining this comprehensive list of school tax increases on the November ballot.)
Tax increases would backfill lost enrollment dollars
Colorado’s K-12 schools are funded through a combination of state and local funding, with the statewide contribution designed to be “per-pupil” funding based upon each district’s student population. While there are several budgetary measures to cushion the blow, eventually these school districts will receive fewer state dollars because they serve fewer students.
Local tax increases on the November ballot may simply replace lost “per-pupil” state funding over time, while the proposed statewide tax increases would raise so much additional revenue that even districts with fast-declining enrollment would net an increase (at least in the short term). In either case, the long-term trajectory of K-12 education in the state remains pointed downward, which will eventually send the economy into a doom loop with a declining workforce providing a shrinking tax base.
Increasing taxes vs. increasing students
The most sustainable way for school districts to increase funding in the near term would be to increase their student populations. This would require the school district communities to experience a major economic boom. Districts would gain more students, which means more state revenue, as well as a larger property tax base, which would deliver more tax revenue. Such a boom seems unlikely given recent trends, but could be impossible if the tax increases succeed.
If passed, the state and local tax increases on the ballot may work against the school districts in the long run. Raising income and property taxes will only increase costs for young families, which should be especially concerning for districts where the current cost of living factors into the exodus.
Colorado’s worsening business climate is already causing companies to relocate elsewhere. Amendment 87, if passed, would nearly double income tax rates for many private-sector employers in Colorado, and further deter prospective employers from expanding in the state.
Enrollment drops worse in high tax states
If Amendment 87 passes, Colorado will become one of the 10 highest-tax states in the country. While many other factors are also at play, there is a clear correlation between states with high taxes and sharper enrollment declines.
Enrollment trends (Fall 2019 → Fall 2024)
(NCES public elementary/secondary data)
Colorado: −5.3%
Highest-tax states
| Hawaii | −7.7% |
| Maine | −7.2% |
| Vermont | −6.2% |
| New York | −6.1% |
| California | −5.6% |
Lowest-tax states
| Texas | +0.9% |
| South Dakota | +0.8% |
| Florida | roughly flat |
| Tennessee | −1.1% |
| Alaska | −1.6% |
| Nevada | −3.9% |
| Wyoming | −5.0% |
In other words, if Colorado school districts want to sustain their enrollment numbers, or at least stem the bleeding, they should be advocating for lower taxes and a better business climate.
Tax increases won’t keep empty schools open
Realistically, Colorado’s school districts will continue to see declining enrollment for the foreseeable future. Declining birth rates are a global phenomenon. Additional tax revenue will not justify keeping empty school buildings open. Difficult discussions will continue no matter what voters decide about the current tax proposals.
Matt Knoedler is senior policy fellow at Independence Institute, a free market think tank in Denver. He’s an “optimistic skeptic” studying the future of government in a fast-changing economy.
